Primetime Preview: Giants @ Phillies
Starting Pitching Preview, Bullpen Analysis, Lineup Thoughts, and Prediction
Welcome to Primetime Preview, a regular feature of Sports By Storm where the focus each week is on the upcoming “primetime” Sunday night baseball game.
Sunday night features two new teams for Primetime Preview in 2024: the San Francisco Giants and Philadelphia Phillies! The Phillies are thirsty for a series win after a wet whipping of the Giants on Saturday night. Meanwhile the Giants are hoping to salvage a game and possibly a series split with their ace on the mound. Let’s look at the matchup.
GIANTS @ PHILLIES
4:00 P.M. PT/7:00 P.M. ET ON ESPN
GIANTS (15-19)
The Giants are off to a sluggish start in 2024 despite some key free agent additions. Both Jorge Soler and Matt Chapman were added this offseason to boost the offense and neither has been especially strong in that department (Soler: .655 OPS; Chapman: .638 OPS). Meanwhile, Blake Snell was added to boost a pitching staff that’s been pretty solid of late, but Snell is now on the injured list after a truncated spring training ramp up.
To be fair, I don’t think many expected the Giants (or anyone other than the Los Angeles Dodgers) to compete for an NL West Division title. But, some (including me) expected the Giants to compete for a wild card spot. Entering Sunday, the Giants are two games out of the last NL wild card spot.
Starting Pitcher: Logan Webb
3-2 2.98 ERA 1.30 WHIP
Logan Webb is the ace of the Giants staff, and with good reason. The CY Young runner-up in 2023 has been posting solid seasons since the Giants gave him extensive innings in 2021. He’s often in the upper echelons in limiting walks and getting chase swings while keeping barrel percentage down. Although he finished top 15 in the NL for strikeouts last year, Webb manages to get a on of ground balls (94th percentile in 2024) and his command of the zone mixed with avoiding the barrel of the bat keep him out of batted ball trouble.
However, there is a bit of a “good not great” element to entire body of Webb’s work. Since his role expanded to eclipse the 100 innings mark in 2021, Webb is 40-27 with a 3.07 ERA and 1.125 WHIP. While his 2.99 FIP suggests there is a bit of bad luck involved there, there’s not a significant gap between his ERA and FIP. Still, a 3.07 ERA with a 1.125 WHIP are solid numbers but not necessarily elite. Perhaps that can explain how a pitcher as talented as Webb has not yet made an All-Star team.
Webb uses four pitches: Changeup (38.9%), Sinker (34.6%), Sweeper (22.1%), and Four Seamer (4.3%).
As the percentages indicate, the Changeup is the feature here. Last season was the first full season in which Webb’s Changeup usage outpaced any other pitch and, as indicated, the results were good as Webb just missed a CY Young award. Undoubtedly, Webb increased his Changeup usage for the simple fact that it’s his best pitch and among the best Changeups in MLB. In 2023, Webb’s Changeup had a run value of 28 — 12 runs higher than the next best Changeup in MLB (Merrill Kelly - 16).
That said, hitters may have adjusted their approach and keyed in on the Changeup. In 2024, Webb’s Changeup has the highest batting average and slugging percentage against of any of his pitches. Moreover, he’s missing fewer bats with the pitch resulting in more batted balls as well. So far in 2024 the Whiff% on Webb’s Changeup is 16.6% down from 22.8% in 2023 and 26.6% in 2022. It’s the lowest whiff% on the Changeup in Webb’s entire career.
Honestly, it might just be the case that hitters are hunting the Changeup. Not only is the most-used pitch overall, it’s often Webb’s weapon of choice independent of count. Batter ahead in the count? Changeup 46.2% (11% higher than next most-used pitch). Batter behind in the count? Changeup 37.5% (10% higher than next most-used pitches). Two strikes? Changeup 38%. Three balls? Changeup 42%.1 Seemingly the only time it would be unwise to hunt the Changeup is on the first pitch of an at-bat when Webb throws the Changeup 30.9% of the time compared to 50.9% usage of the Sinker.
Like any pitcher, Webb will vary his pitch mix and usage depending on batter handedness, but there’s a notable outlier—the Four Seamer. Webb has thrown 31 Four Seamers in 2024, just four have been to RHB. Historically the disparity is even more drastic. For example, in 2023, Webb threw six Four Seamers to RHB and 111 to LHB. RHB can almost eliminate it from the equation and look for the Sinker, Changeup, and Sweeper in that order. Further, all batters, independent of handedness, can eliminate the Four Seamer if they get ahead in the Count. Webb is yet to throw a Four Seamer when the batter is ahead in the count.
Bullpen Analysis:
Camilo Doval, Tyler Rogers, Taylor Rogers, and Luke Jackson are the preferred leverage options for the Giants. Jackson appeared on both Friday and Saturday night, so he’s probably unavailable on Sunday. But the Rogers twins are likely to make an appearance, especially if the game is close/competitive.
I must admit, I’m a fan of Camilo Doval. If he could just get his walks under control (20th percentile in MLB), he’d be bulletproof. Doval’s 2024 is off to an interesting start. His ERA is slightly inflated and his WHIP is up over last year. He’s also upped his Slider usage significantly (2023: 36.2%; 2024: 53.4%). That’s risky. Especially when you consider that he’s far more effective in the strike zone with his Cutter (56.3% zone percentage) than his Slider (40.7% zone percentage). My guess is that he’s chasing the whiff percentage on his Slider (49.3% in 2023; 44.1% in 2024).
Taylor Rogers has confusing splits. For his career, LHB were confounded by him but in 2024 the trend has reversed. RHB have an OPS of .586. Meanwhile LHB have a 1.038 OPS. I’m curious to find out whether manager Bob Melvin will confidently deploy Taylor Rogers against the various LHB of the Phillies (Harper or Schwarber) in leverage situations.
Not to be outdone, Taylor’s brother, Tyler Rogers has equally confusing splits. One would expect a sidearm pitcher, like Tyler, to have poor splits against LHB…except he’s better against LHB (.586) in 2024 than RHB (.849). Now, perhaps it’s just the delivery angle of Tyler.
In addition to the preferred leverage options, it seems like a halfway decent chance that Ryan Walker will appear. Let me tell you, Walker profiles as an interesting arm to monitor. He avoids barrels (94th percentile) and thus hard hits (97th percentile). He’s also good at avoiding walks (78th percentile in BB%) but striking batters out (85 percentile in K%). But he does it with a near-average fastball velocity (63rd percentile). Safe to say, it’s his breaking ball profile (97th percentile in breaking ball run value) that dominates. In particular, it’s his Slider, which plays off Sinker, and generates a .182 xBA.
Lineup Analysis:
I expect the following Giants lineup:
Name (Handedness) [Career OPS against RHP]
Jung Hoo Lee (L) [.656]
LaMonte Wade Jr (L) [.897]
Jorge Soler (R) [.578]
Michael Conforto (L) [.663]
Matt Chapman (R) [.548]
Mike Yastrzemski (L) [.654]
Thairo Estrada (R) [.816]
Tom Murphy (R) [.577]
Nick Ahmed (R) [.473]
The Giants aren’t a juggernaut offense. At 22nd in runs scored in the MLB, they’ll rely on their pitching to limit the opposition and do just enough to eek out wins.
As discussed below, Taijuan Walker is pretty even against both sides of the plate so there isn’t a particular edge for the Giants to exploit. That said, Thairo Estrada is notably better against RHB and he appears to be an exception for the Giants lineup which generally appears to be better against LHB in 2024.
The Giants primary catcher, Patrick Bailey is on the 10-day Inured List with a concussion and that will result in a defensive drop off for the Giants. Neither Tom Murphy nor the backup catcher Blake Sabol, who could conceivably get a start on Sunday, are particularly strong on limiting the run game.
PHILLIES (23-11)
The Phillies are having a very underrated 2024 campaign. Seriously.
Let’s be honest, right now, did you know the Philadelphia Phillies had the best record in baseball?
Be honest.
No, you didn’t (neither did I until I sat down to write this very feature that you’re reading—thanks for reading by the way, much appreciated).
I got a text from a friend recently that I think encapsulates how weird our perceptions can be at times. My friend asked me how it could be that the Phillies, with their current roster, aren’t “better.” Naturally, being the snarky individual that I am, I responded by asking him ‘[d]o you mean, how is it that the team that won the NL pennant two years ago and finished one win short of winning it in 2024 isn’t BETTER?’
It’s a very tongue-in-cheek response to be sure, but I must say it’s wild that the Phillies are somehow very successful in a major east coast market and yet they are playing second-fiddle to the Atlanta Braves and Los Angeles Dodgers in the National League simply because they haven’t won the NL East Division these past two years.
Starting Pitcher: Taijuan Walker
2023: 15-6 4.38 ERA 1.31 WHIP
Sunday night will mark Taijuan Walker’s second start of the 2024 season as he returns from a right shoulder impingement. Coming off a decent 2023 season, Walker is reportedly focusing on consistent velocity. As Walker indicated, the belief is that increased velocity on his Sinker and Four Seamer will make his Split Finger (his most utilized pitch) more effective. It may be a good idea, the Split Finger is already among Walker’s most effective pitches, second only to his Sweeper in terms of batting average against.
Walker deploys six pitches (2023 usage): Split Finger (33.2%), Sinker (23.3%), Four Seamer (17.6%), Cutter (17.6%), Curveball (5.7%), and Sweeper (2.6%).
For both his career and recently (i.e. 2023) Walker has pretty even splits against LHB and RHB. He owes it to a wise pitch mix. LHB? Splitter, Four Seamer, and Curveball. RHB? Splitter, Sinker, and Sweeper. Indeed, and perhaps oddly, only the Cutter gets a healthy mix against both RHB and LHB. This trend carried over to Walker’s first start of 2024 for what it’s worth.
Let’s talk about Walker’s Splitter. Of course, it’s Walker’s preferred pitch. But, similar to Webb’s Changeup, it’s a pitch that he’s seemingly particularly fond of. Two strikes? Splitter 44.7% of the time. Three balls? Splitter 33.7% of the time (just ahead of the Sinker at 30.4%). Batter behind or ahead in the count? Splitter 39.4% and 32.4% of the time, respectively. But first pitch? Not so fast. That’s when Walker favors the Sinker.
Bullpen Analysis:
Because they mashed the Giants in a rain-soaked blowout on Saturday, the Phillies bullpen is very well-rested.
Jose Alvarado, Jeff Hoffman, Gregory Soto, and Orion Kerkering are the preferred leverage options. All should be rested after taking Saturday night off. Both Alvarado and Kerkering are lethal regardless of the handedness of the batter but Soto and Hoffman can falter based on handedness. Soto’s pitch mix (Sinker, Slider, Four Seamer, Changeup) can make him vulnerable to RHB (.878 OPS vs RHB). He’ll try to just overpower hitters with his high-velo heater. Meanwhile, Hoffman is another high-velo reliever who aims to just overpower hitters. Like Soto, his pitch mix (Four Seamer, Slider, Split Finger, Sinker) makes him vulnerable. Against LHB, he has to lean on the Split Finger and he struggles to avoid the bats (.250 BA, .417 SLG, and 20 Whiff% against vs LHB).
Lineup Analysis:
I expect the following Phillies lineup:
Name (Handedness) [2024 OPS against RHP]
Kyle Schwarber (L) [.555]
Whit Merrifield (R) [.733]
J.T. Realmuto (R) [.611]
Bryce Harper (L) [.852]
Nick Castellanos (R) [.504]
Brandon Marsh (L) [.931]
Bryson Stott (L) [.669]
Edmundo Sosa (R) [.533]
Johan Rojas (R) [.632]
Admittedly, there is a bit of guess work involved in this lineup construction. Trea Turner got hurt on Friday night sliding into home after some aggressive baserunning on a passed ball and was placed on the 10-day Injured List on Saturday. In his place Edmundo Sosa will get more playing time and the lineup will get shaken up a bit. Then, on Saturday night, Alec Bohm left the game with a hip injury that I suspect will keep him out on Sunday night. I’m guessing Whit Merrifield is the benefactor of more playing time in this scenario and I’m guessing the Phillies will slot the speedster near the top of the lineup to create more opportunities for Realmuto and Harper, the more established, consistent hitters.
This lineup looks a little shallow but don’t sleep on Stott who is on a heater over the last couple weeks. In the last 14 days, Stott has 2 HRs 10 RBI and a .936 OPS.
Kyle Schwarber’s traditional stats suggest he’s struggling a bit this year. As is now the norm for Schwarber his batting average is in the .200 neighborhood but all his value comes from drawing walks and mashing dingers. Schwarber hit 47 homers last year while batting .197 but had an on-base percentage of .343. This year, he’s drawing fewer walks and slugging fewer extra base hits. His OPS is down more than 100 points from last year to .705.
Now, here’s the rub, think Webb is a tough matchup for Schwarber. I noted Webb’s preference for the Changeup above and I suspect he’ll continue to have one. Schwarber meanwhile is chilled by Changeups in 2024. Schwarber has seen 66 Changeups this year and is batting .091 against them with a 53.8% K% against the pitch. J.T. Realmuto, Bryce Harper, and Nick Castellanos are all in a similar (but less drastic) situations against the Changeup. Each bat .176 or worse against the Changeup with K% at 30% or above.
Brandon Marsh is the one Phillies batter who might do well against Webb’s Changeup. Not only does Webb have worse splits against LHB than RHB (LHB .682 OPS against Webb), Marsh is hitting the Changeup very well in 2024. Marsh has seen 32 Changeups this year and has a .500 batting average against the pitch with two extra base hits including this 400 foot bomb off Mike Soroka in Citizens Bank Park.
Lastly, the Phillies are 4th in MLB in stolen bases but 10 of their 36 have come from the injured Trea Turner. Rojas, Stott, and Marsh are all candidates to steal. As noted above, Patrick Bailey won’t be in the lineup for San Francisco and that may cost them as Baseball Savant grades Logan Webb among the worst pitchers on the Giants staff at preventing stolen bases. Notably, both catching options for the Giants, Tom Murphy and Blake Sabol are league average or below in terms of catcher pop time.
Prediction: Giants Win
If you’ve been reading Primetime Preview, you may detect a bias toward starting pitching. Well, get ready for some more of that. I’m leaning Giants here largely because they have the better starting pitcher and he profiles better against, arguably, a better lineup.
Sure, I think the Phillies have a better offense. But, they also profile poorly against Webb’s Changeup. Of course, Webb’s LHB splits could rear their ugly head and this game could get sideways like Webb’s last start when the Boston Red Sox stacked LHB against him. But, I’m going to take chances and say that the Phillies hitters that struggle against the Changeup (Schwarber, Realmuto, Harper, etc.) will continue to do so and the Giants offense will do just enough to edge out a lead that Doval locks down.
That wraps up this week’s Primetime Preview. I hope you enjoyed reading and found the information useful, insightful, or interesting.
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This is actually the smallest margin of difference between the Changeup and the next pitch. In three ball counts, Webb throws the Changeup 42% and the Sinker 40%.